2023 Market Outlook & 2022 Year in Review By Treb (Summary)

2023 Market Outlook & 2022 Year in Review By Treb (Summary)

Looking ahead to 2023, the housing market will be impacted by two significant forces: higher levels of immigration and increased borrowing costs. The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) is forecasting a total of 70,000 home sales, which is lower than the previous year but expected to show improvement in the second half of 2023. The average selling price for all home types combined is anticipated to reach $1,140,000, which is up compared to the second half of 2022 but down by 4% compared to the previous year.

According to a Fall 2022 Ipsos poll, demand for homeownership is expected to increase in 2023. 28% of respondents indicated their intention to purchase a home in 2023, with the share of intending first-time buyers increasing to 46%, compared to 39% in the previous poll. Listing intentions were up for townhomes and similar to 2022 for condominium apartments and semi-detached houses.

In 2022, the GTA housing market had 75,140 home sales, 152,873 new listings, and an average price of $1,189,850 for all home types. New home sales started strong in early 2022 but decreased towards the end of the year. Total sales were down 44% compared to 2021, with a benchmark price of $1,742,000 for a new single-family home in November 2022, and 4.5 months of the available inventory in the new single-family market.

The commercial market had varying trends in each sector, with slight increases in transaction activity for Q3 2022 and office market availability rates climbing slightly when compared to 2021. Industrial supply tightened throughout the year.